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DECLASSIFIED · STUDY GUIDE

This is how they tell me the world ends

Nicole Perlroth · The Cyberweapons Arms Race · 2021 · About 20 minutes here

A New York Times reporter follows one strange product for ten years: the secret software flaw. Governments pay hackers millions for these flaws and turn them into weapons. Her conclusion: the country that started this market is now the country with the most to lose.

The book in 60 seconds
  1. Every big piece of software has unknown flaws. A flaw that the maker does not know about is a zero-day.
  2. From the 1990s, US spy agencies started to buy zero-days in secret. They kept them unfixed so they could break into targets.
  3. The market grew. Prices went from a T-shirt to $2.5 million. Brokers and mercenary companies started to sell to any government that pays.
  4. The weapons escaped. Stuxnet showed the world that code can break machines. Leaked NSA tools came back as WannaCry and NotPetya and hit hospitals, ports and factories.
  5. The US is the most connected country on Earth, so it lives in a glass house. The author asks for defence first: secure software, fewer secret flaws, and rules for this market.
Chapter 1 · Try it

You found a bug

You are a hacker. You find a flaw in the iPhone. With it, you can take full control of any iPhone without a click from the owner. Nobody else knows about it yet. Who do you give it to?

Pick a buyer4 options
Pick a buyer to see what happens.
Chapter 2 · Try it

Follow the price

Move the slider through the years. Watch the price of one top exploit. The bars use a log scale, so each step up is roughly ten times more money.

Price of one top exploitApproximate public figures
$0
The name for this

The exploit market. At first, companies such as iDefense paid a few hundred dollars per bug, and software makers called them extortionists. Then governments joined. A hacker named Charlie Miller sold an exploit to the US government and later wrote openly about the deal. That paper showed everyone that a market existed.

Brokers such as Vupen in France, and later Zerodium, made the market professional. They published price lists, and they sold to governments. The phone became the top target, because the phone holds a person's whole life.

Chapter 3 · Try it

Keep it or tell?

You are now a US spy agency. You hold six zero-days. For each one, decide. Keep it secret and use it to spy, or tell the software maker so it gets fixed for everyone. Then jump forward to 2016.

Spy power0
Public stays exposed0
Decide on all six bugs first.
The name for this

The Vulnerabilities Equities Process (VEP). On paper, the US government weighs each flaw. Does the spy value beat the risk to the public? The book argues that in practice, the agencies kept most of the valuable flaws, and almost nobody outside could check.

The Shadow Brokers. In 2016 a mystery group started to post NSA hacking tools online. Some still worked against unpatched systems. The agency's secret stock of flaws became everyone's stock.

Chapter 4 · Try it

The perfect sabotage

You are an engineer at an Iranian nuclear site. Your screen shows the uranium centrifuges. Press start. Then switch the view to see what the machines really do.

Rotor speed1,064 Hz
StatusNORMAL
Centrifuges destroyed0
The name for this

Stuxnet, part of a US–Israeli operation called Olympic Games. The worm used several zero-days to reach machines with no internet link. It changed the rotor speed, up to about 1,410 Hz and down to about 2 Hz, while it played normal readings back to the operators. Iran's engineers blamed parts and staff, not code.

In 2010 the worm escaped Iran and spread across the world, and researchers took it apart. The book treats this as a turning point. The US had shown that code can break physical things. Iran, Russia, China and North Korea took note, and started to build their own.

Chapter 5 · Try it

The boomerang

Follow one NSA tool from creation to disaster. Click each step, or use Next.

The name for this

Blowback. A weapon that is code can be copied. Once it leaks, any attacker can re-use it, against anyone, including the country that built it. The book opens in Ukraine after NotPetya because it shows this pattern clearly.

Chapter 6 · Try it

Who lives in a glass house?

Pick a country. Compare its attack skill with how much of its life runs on networks. The scores are our rough illustration of the book's argument, not official data.

Attack skill
Depends on networks

The name for this

The glass house. The US has the best offence. But its banks, grid, hospitals, water plants and elections all run on software. A country such as North Korea has almost nothing to hit. So in a cyber fight, the strongest attacker can also be the biggest target. The book argues that the US spent on offence while it left its own defence weak.

Chapter 7 · Explore

The players

The book moves around the world. These are the main actors. Filter by type.

Chapter 8 · Explore

Timeline

Click an event to open it.

US and allies actRivals strikeThe market
Chapter 9 · Do it

Strengthen the glass

The book ends with what to do. Most attacks do not need a $2 million zero-day. They use old, known flaws and weak passwords. Tick what you already do.

You
Your glass strength 0%
What the author asks of leaders
  • Build software that is secure from the start, and hold vendors responsible for unsafe code.
  • Disclose more zero-days so they get fixed. Make the keep-or-tell process more open.
  • Protect the systems that people need to live: grids, hospitals, water, elections.
  • Agree international rules, such as no attacks on civilian infrastructure, in the way that countries made rules for other weapons.
  • Control who can sell exploits and spyware, and stop sales to governments that hunt journalists and activists.
  • Make defence the first priority, ahead of offence.
Chapter 10 · Test it

Six questions